There was a time when it was somewhat rare for student-athletes to transfer colleges. In 2015, In 2015, 6% of NCAA Division 1 athletes were transfers from another 4-year institution. By 2024, that number doubled to 13%.   

Today, transferring is a strategy. And for successful higher ed institutions, it’s a significant pivot point for student retention strategies.  

Many of our community college clients, for example, partner with 4-year institutions in 2+2 programs, creating less expensive and potentially faster pathways to earning a bachelor’s degree. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), nearly 42% of transfer students in fall 2024 moved from a 2-year to a 4-year institution. 

There are also plenty of lateral transfers, in which students choose to move between two 2-year or 4-year institutions. One highly visible example of this is the student-athlete transfer portal, which has normalized the idea that if student-athletes are not getting what they want from their current institution, they can explore other options. As college football season begins, pundits and fans will spend the next several months debating NIL deals, transfer portal decisions, and roster turnover. 

For colleges and universities, these trends—paired with the ease of transferring and numerous pathways to do so—raise an important question: How are we working to retain and engage current students?

The New Retention Reality 

For decades, enrollment strategy focused heavily on attracting students and securing their commitment. Now, students have more information, options, and confidence in their ability to change direction if their expectations aren’t met. 

NSCRC data show that overall transfer enrollment increased 4.4% in fall 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth. Transfers now account for 13.1% of continuing and returning undergraduate students, up from 11.9% in 2020. As NSCRC notes, this upward trend likely reflects changes in the education system and in labor market conditions. 

When students actively evaluate their options throughout their college journey, retention becomes an enrollment strategy more than a student affairs metric. The question many students are now asking is no longer, “Can I transfer?” Instead, it is, “Why should I stay?”

Student Success and Retention Are More Connected Than Ever 

This reality is not new. Several years ago, we examined student-athlete graduation rates and highlighted a trend many institutions continue to experience. Students who feel supported, connected, and invested in their education are significantly more likely to graduate. 

Student success happens when institutions create conditions that help students stay engaged, overcome barriers, and continue progressing toward their goals. 

But if marketing promises one experience and reality delivers another, dissatisfaction follows and they begin questioning whether they made the right decision. Competing institutions are more than willing to showcase their programs, highlight transfer opportunities, and demonstrate why a student might thrive elsewhere.

Retention Starts Earlier Than Many Colleges Think 

Research from Modern Campus reinforces this point. Their retention guidance highlights the importance of student engagement, connection, and early intervention. Rather than waiting until students are already disengaged, institutions should create systems that identify concerns early and connect students with support before a small challenge becomes a major obstacle. 

At the 2026 Engage Summit, one recurring theme was the importance of identifying struggling students before they disappeared. As Element451 CEO James Novak stated in his conference welcome keynote, when advisers lack the capacity to meaningfully engage every student, “students fall through the cracks. They take the wrong courses. They lose momentum. They drop out.”

At the conference, several colleges shared evidence that earlier intervention and more focused student support can improve outcomes. But the larger message was about creating more capacity for human connection. Novak described the opportunity as returning time to “real conversations with students” and to “advising, connecting, showing up for the person on the other side of the desk.” 

Retention often depends less on a single major initiative and more on consistently showing students that someone cares and is paying attention. As Novak summarized the impact, these are “students who stayed, students who graduated,” because someone or something showed up for them “when it really mattered most.”

Institutions That Earn Loyalty Will Win 

Beyond effective recruiting, the colleges that succeed in this new environment will be those that continually reinforce belonging and value. That means they will: 

• Identify barriers before students begin disengaging. 

• Demonstrate academic and career progress early and often. 

• Connect students with experiences that reinforce their decision to enroll. 

• Maintain consistent communication beyond the admissions process. 

• Create opportunities for students to build meaningful relationships. 

Most importantly, they will recognize that retention is no longer a downstream issue. It starts long before students arrive on campus. 

This fall, college football commentators will spend countless hours discussing NIL agreements and transfer portal decisions. Higher ed leaders should pay attention to the broader cultural shift that students are increasingly reassessing their choices, exploring alternatives, and pursuing a different path if their needs aren’t met.  

Enrollment is no longer the finish line; it’s the beginning of an ongoing relationship. In an era shaped by rising expectations and greater choice, institutions can no longer assume students will stay simply because they are enrolled. They must earn it every year. 

Let’s talk about how your institution can build stronger connections with students throughout their journey.